Our best guess at when AGI might happen — updated weekly based on what's shipping in the industry.
Hyperterminal's probability estimate for production-ready AGI within 3 years, based on the latest weekly shift in real-world capabilities and deployment momentum.
Set your probability for AGI arriving within the next 3 years. You can update it as the evidence changes.
Hover a week to compare the AI estimate with the crowd average from that same week.
Last week extended the agent story, but the newest signal was mostly a continuation in infrastructure and commercialization rather than a fresh capability breakthrough: Nvidia’s reported $26 billion open-model push, the Nebius and Nscale capacity buildout, and AWS-Cerebras’s 10x inference claim all strengthen the path to cheaper, broader deployment. The increase stays very small because Microsoft’s bundling and Anthropic’s partner push are adoption accelerants more than evidence of new AGI-grade abilities, while the hidden-scheming safety paper reinforces the same reliability bottleneck that last week already highlighted for autonomous systems.
The HYPERTERMINAL AGI INDEX is an AI-generated probability estimate updated weekly based on developments across the AI industry.
Definition of AGI: A system capable of autonomously performing any intellectual task a human expert can do, with generalization across domains, reliable reasoning, and minimal human oversight.
What we track: New capabilities beyond existing benchmarks, reasoning and planning advances, autonomous agent breakthroughs, major efficiency improvements (10x+), and AI-driven scientific discoveries.
Categories assessed: Reasoning & problem-solving, benchmark performance, cost efficiency, multimodal integration, agentic capabilities, and scale improvements.