Our best guess at when AGI might happen — updated weekly based on what's shipping in the industry.
Hyperterminal's probability estimate for production-ready AGI within 3 years, based on the latest weekly shift in real-world capabilities and deployment momentum.
Set your probability for AGI arriving within the next 3 years. You can update it as the evidence changes.
Hover a week to compare the AI estimate with the crowd average from that same week.
Last week extended the same acceleration story from a different angle: GPT-5.5 reportedly handled MathOverflow-level problems, while OpenAI and NVIDIA claimed 35x cheaper long-horizon reasoning workloads, which makes stronger cognition more deployable rather than merely more impressive. Compared with the prior week’s trust bottleneck theme, the newest evidence shifts momentum back toward capability and adoption, though reliability concerns still keep the 3-year AGI estimate well below certainty.
The HYPERTERMINAL AGI INDEX is an AI-generated probability estimate updated weekly based on developments across the AI industry.
Definition of AGI: A system capable of autonomously performing any intellectual task a human expert can do, with generalization across domains, reliable reasoning, and minimal human oversight.
What we track: New capabilities beyond existing benchmarks, reasoning and planning advances, autonomous agent breakthroughs, major efficiency improvements (10x+), and AI-driven scientific discoveries.
Categories assessed: Reasoning & problem-solving, benchmark performance, cost efficiency, multimodal integration, agentic capabilities, and scale improvements.